A Multiverse of Good and Bad Controls: Candidate Causal Graphs for Interpreting Model Robustness Analysis

Shoki Okubo

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Model robustness analysis estimates an effect across a multiverse of specifications that pools control sets identifying the declared estimand with sets that condition on mediators or colliders. We propose stating rival assumptions about contested controls as a small set of candidate causal graphs, enumerating the adjustment sets each graph licenses, and reporting robustness metrics conditional on each graph. A finite-mixture identity splits the licensed multiverse's dispersion into within-graph and between-graph components; the between-graph share is a conditional descriptive summary whose reading depends on the candidate set, the weights, and a common estimand. Simulations examine misleading pooled robustness assessments and the limits of the decomposition. Applications to hurricane fatalities, job training, and union wages show fragility that survives every graph, instability produced by unlicensed specifications, and a fragility verdict concealing a significant premium in each adjustment-identified candidate world. An R package implements the workflow.

Date: 2026-09
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