Climate change, sea level rise, and the agricultural revolution

Ridhika Mishra and Richard Tol

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We test various hypotheses for the invention and spread of agriculture: higher temperatures, increased seasonality, carbon dioxide fertilization, sea level rise, and technological progress on the extensive margin. We successfully replicate Matranga (QJE 2024). His seasonality hypothesis survives alternative data, estimators, and competing hypotheses. Population density played a role in the invention of agriculture, while spatial diffusion was important for its spread. Sea level rise and climate change had a minor effect on the population density of the areas that first adopted agriculture. Extrapolating a logit model for the invention of agriculture, some now-submerged areas in the Persian Gulf, Mediterranean, and Yellow Sea were suitable for early agriculture. Over time, technological progress was the main factor in extending agriculture's extensive margin.

Date: 2026-10
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