An analytical model to explain under which conditions home batteries create new load peaks in the local grid

Lion Hirth

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Simulation studies find that price-responsive home batteries and electric vehicles create new load peaks in low-voltage grids; with endogenous wholesale prices most of these peaks disappear. This paper explains both findings with an analytical model of the coincident peak at the transformer. The model is algebraic and solved in closed form, so the parameters that determine whether a new peak emerges and how large it becomes can be identified; they are few. The peak is the background load in the critical hour plus the charging of the local fleet. Under exogenous prices the charging equals the rated power of the fleet. Under endogenous prices the national fleet fills the trough of residual load until the price is flat; the depth of the fill follows from an energy balance in which the price function does not appear. For a V-shaped trough the local charging peak is the share of the grid in national flexibility times the square root of flank gradient times national flexibility. Rated power, price level, network charge and market size do not enter. The model reproduces simulated peaks for a German case within a few percent.

Date: 2026-10
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