Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market

D. Sornette and Wei-Xing Zhou
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D. Sornette: CNRS-Univ. Nice and UCLA

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Abstract: Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a LPPL signature in the foreign capital inflow during the bubble on the US markets culminating in March 2000. We detect a weak synchronization and lag with the NASDAQ 100 LPPL pattern. We propose to rationalize these observations by the existence of positive feedback loops between market-appreciation / increased-spending / increased-deficit-of-balance-of-payment / larger-foreign-surplus / increased-foreign-capital-inflows and so on. Our analysis suggests that foreign capital inflow have been following rather than causing the bubble. We then combine a macroeconomic analysis of feedback processes occurring between the economy and the stock market with a technical analysis of more than two hundred years of the DJIA to investigate possible scenarios for the future, three years after the end of the bubble and deep into a bearish regime. We also detect a LPPL accelerating bubble on the EURO against the US dollar and the Japanese Yen. In sum, our analyses is in line with our previous work on the LPPL ``anti-bubble'' representing the bearish market that started in 2000.

Date: 2003-06
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Published in Physica A 332 (2004) 412-440

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Journal Article: Evidence of fueling of the 2000 new economy bubble by foreign capital inflow: implications for the future of the US economy and its stock market (2004)
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