Limited profit in predictable stock markets

R. Rothenstein and K. Pawelzik

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: It has been assumed that arbitrage profits are not possible in efficient markets, because future prices are not predictable. Here we show that predictability alone is not a sufficient measure of market efficiency. We instead propose to measure inefficiencies of markets in terms of the maximal profit an ideal trader can take out from a market. In a stock market model with an evolutionary selection of agents this method reveals that the mean relative amount of realizable profits $P$ is very limited and we find that it decays with rising number of agents in the markets. Our results show that markets may self-organize their collective dynamics such that it becomes very sensitive to profit attacks which demonstrates that a high degree of market efficiency can coexist with predictability.

Date: 2004-03, Revised 2004-03
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