EDMocracy: populism and democratic dissatisfaction in Europe

Federico Favaretto and Michele Mariani

No 24219, BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers from BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy

Abstract: We study the link among populist vote, democratic expectations and democratic performances by using individual level data in 26 European countries in 2012 and 2020. We use a Heckman model to explain the determinants of both the decision to vote and voting for populists: both are predicted by the gap between democratic expectations and perceived performance (that we define as “ideal democracy gap”), while controlling for fixed effects, political and economic variables, and attitudes. These results confirm the expectancy-disconfirmation model (EDM) that links both expectations and ideal democracy gaps for twelve aspects within electoral, liberal, social and direct dimensions of democracy to democratic dissatisfaction. Our analysis reveals differences and similarities among voter groups and within European regions

Keywords: populism; voting behaviour; democratic dissatisfaction; EDM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 D72 H30 P00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-eec and nep-pol
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