Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting

Massimiliano Marcellino and Michael Pfarrhofer

No 24224, BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers from BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy

Abstract: We review specification and estimation of multivariate Bayesian nonparametric models for forecasting (possibly large sets of) macroeconomic and financial variables. The focus is on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and Gaussian Processes. We then apply various versions of these models for point, density and tail forecasting using datasets for the euro area and the US. The performance is compared with that of several variants of Bayesian VARs to assess the relevance of accounting for general forms of nonlinearities. We find that medium-scale linear VARs with stochastic volatility are tough benchmarks to beat. Some gains in predictive accuracy arise for nonparametric approaches, most notably for short-run forecasts of unemployment and longer-run predictions of inflation, and during recessionary or otherwise non-standard economic episodes

Keywords: United States; euro area; Bayesian Additive Regression Trees; Gaussian Processes; multivariate time series analysis; structural breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
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Related works:
Chapter: Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting (2024)
Working Paper: Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting (2024)
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