Direct Gaussian Process Predictive Regressions with Mixed Frequency Data

Niko Hauzenberger Massimiliano Marcellino Michael Pfarrhofer Anna Stelzer

No 26265, BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers from BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy

Abstract: We develop Bayesian machine learning methods for mixed frequency data. This involves handling frequency mismatches and specifying functional relationships between (possibly many) predictors and low frequency dependent variables. We use Gaussian Processes (GPs) in direct nonlinear predictive regressions, and compress higher frequency variables in a structured way. This yields a set of kernels for GPs with distinct properties and implications. We evaluate the proposed framework in an out-of-sample exercise focusing on quarterly US GDP growth and inflation. Our approach leverages high-dimensional mixed frequency data in a computationally efficient way, and offers robustness and gains in predictive accuracy along several dimensions.

Keywords: Bayesian nonparametrics; direct forecasting; nowcasting; dimension reduction; MIDAS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C22 C53 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 91
Date: 2026
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