GDP Nowcasting: Assessing the Cyclical Conditions of the Argentine Economy

Laura D'Amato (), Lorena Garegnani () and Emilio Blanco
Additional contact information
Lorena Garegnani: Central Bank of Argentina

Ensayos Económicos, 2016, vol. 1, issue 74, 7-26

Abstract: Having a contemporaneus assessment of the economy cyclical conditions is crucial for monetary policy decisions. Since GDP figures are available with a significant delay, Nowcasting techniques, which allow for an immediate perception of the economic cycle, have been increasingly adopted by central banks. We develop an exercise of GDP growth Nowcast using two approaches: bridge equations and factor models. Both methods improve the predictive capacity compared to an AR(1) benchmark. Additionally, the Nowcast based on a factor model surpasses the predictive ability generated by bridge equations. Finally, using the Giacomini and White (2004) test we confirm that these differences in predictive capacity are statistically significant.

Keywords: bridge equations; dynamic factor models; nowcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bcra.gov.ar/Institucional/DescargaPDF/DownloadPDF.aspx?Id=322 Spanish version (versión en Español) (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2016:i:74:p:7-26

Access Statistics for this article

Ensayos Económicos is currently edited by Germán Feldman

More articles in Ensayos Económicos from Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Federico Grillo ().