The Changing Effect of Energy and Rice Prices and Remittances on Overall Inflation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Philippines

Harold Glenn Valera, Mark Holmes and Vic Delloro
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Harold Glenn Valera: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Vic Delloro: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

No 202502, BSP Discussion Paper Series from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Abstract: In this paper, we address the challenge of using aggregate data to study the effects of fuel and rice prices on overall inflation in emerging markets. Our quantile regression analysis using the Philippines' province-level monthly data from 1996 to 2024 finds a strong impact during periods of higher inflation. Indeed, this impact is verified in Indonesia, Thailand, and India. We also find that inflation targeting and rice tariffication reduce such an impact and that high-poverty and rice-deficit areas exhibit a higher fall in rice inflation effect post-tariffication. In addition, the impact of remittances on Philippine inflation is nonlinear, while it is asymmetric for the other three countries.

JEL-codes: C32 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2025-04
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Published as BSP Discussion paper No. 2025-02, April 2025

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Working Paper: The Changing Effect of Energy and Rice Prices and Remittances on Overall Inflation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Philippines (2025)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bhd:dpaper:202502

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