The life experience of central bankers and monetary policy decisions: a cross-country dataset

Carlos Madeira

No 1304, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: Using hand-collected data with biographical information on central bank governors and board members in over 200 countries, I obtain experience-based forecasts for GDP growth and inflation based on an adaptive learning model estimated from their lifetime macroeconomic data. I show life experience influences the monetary policy rates, even after accounting for other macroeconomics observables in the empirical Taylor rule. The role of personal experience is lower in advanced economies and for central bankers with treasury experience. Furthermore, life experience influences the tone of speeches for monetary policy, financial stability and climate concerns. Weather disasters experience reduces climate concerns and NGFS membership.

Keywords: monetary policy; fiscal policy; experience effects; forecasting; learning; beliefs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 E37 E50 E60 E70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11
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