A MODEL OF US CEREALS FOOD AID FLOWS WITH AN APPLICATION TO TRADE LIBERALISATION

Christopher L. Gilbert

Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1996, vol. 47, issue 1‐4, 143-157

Abstract: This paper reports a model in which food aid flows are seen as the outcome of budget‐constrained resource allocation decisions. This framework allows the application of standard demand theory to structure an econometric model of the supply of food aid from the United States. Aid propensities out of public stocks remain high for wheat and rice, but not for maize. In addition, rice disbursements are price‐sensitive, in particular in relation to the price of rice relative to wheat. The model is used to examine some of the possible implications of trade liberalisation resulting from the Uruguay Round of the CA TT on food aid flows. These are dominated by stock effects, resulting in a possible fall in the volume of US food aid by 11 per cent to 14 per cent.

Date: 1996
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