What drives economic growth forecast revisions?

Metodij Hadzi‐Vaskov, Luca Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner and Rene Zamarripa
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

Review of International Economics, 2023, vol. 31, issue 3, 1068-1092

Abstract: This article investigates how the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions behave across different horizons and country groups. Our main findings suggest that (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to forecast errors as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, they tend to be positively associated, suggesting a persistent perception of short‐term shocks; and (v) professional growth revisions are highly correlated.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12653

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:reviec:v:31:y:2023:i:3:p:1068-1092

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0965-7576

Access Statistics for this article

Review of International Economics is currently edited by E. Kwan Choi

More articles in Review of International Economics from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().