Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement: A 23‐Year Spatial Analysis in Colombia

Juan David Gelvez and Leo Bauer

Social Science Quarterly, 2025, vol. 106, issue 4

Abstract: Objective This study examines the spatial dynamics of climate disasters, violence, and internal displacement in Colombia. Methods We combine data on disasters, displacement, and conflict violence at the municipal level for all years between 1998 and 2021. Through descriptive and cluster analysis, the local Geary statistic, and principal component analysis, we identify distinct geographic patterns and temporal shifts in how these factors interact. Results Our findings reveal persistent spatial clustering, with displacement, violence, and disasters becoming increasingly concentrated over time, particularly in regions historically inhabited by Indigenous and Afro‐descendant communities. We also find strong spatial correlations between these factors, with violence emerging as the primary driver of displacement, especially in the years following the 2016 Peace Agreement. At the same time, certain areas exhibit persistently low levels of displacement, highlighting the uneven geographic distribution of these processes. ConclusionsBy applying spatial methodologies, this research advances our understanding of the localized and interconnected nature of displacement, conflict, and environmental‐related hazards, offering insights relevant to migration studies, environmental justice, and conflict research.

Date: 2025
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