Quality or Complexion? Experience and Skin Tone as Determinants of Electoral Success in Mexico

René Rejón and Sergio Bárcena

Social Science Quarterly, 2025, vol. 106, issue 4

Abstract: Objective Recent research suggest that skin color discrimination influences electoral outcomes. This article tests the empirical robustness and generalizability of these findings, incorporating candidates’ quality as an alternative explanation for electoral success. Methods We examine data from the 2024 General Election in Mexico. In addition to the variables considered by others before (i.e., human‐coded complexion, incumbency, college degree, sex, age, party), we include one machine‐coded skin tone measure, education level and, notably, disaggregate experience variables (government, legislative, and partisan). Results Our results indicate little, if any, support for the idea that skin tone is a significant predictor for electoral outcomes in Mexico. Conversely, legislative experience and partisanship appear to be the most significant determinants of electoral success. Conclusions Rather than disproving the existence of skin tone discrimination in Mexico, our findings reveal that electoral contests are not the best site to test the political salience of skin color in Mexico.

Date: 2025
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