The Impact of Ego‐Tropic and Socio‐Tropic Perceptions on Vote Choice in Constitutional Referendums: Evidence From Chile in 2022

Gonzalo Espinoza Bianchini, Patricio Navia and Thomas Abarca Olave

Social Science Quarterly, 2025, vol. 106, issue 5

Abstract: Objective We analyze how economic perceptions shaped voting behavior in Chile’s 2022 constitutional referendum, where voters rejected a proposed new constitution. Methods Using survey data from a two‐wave online national poll (N = 1,957) conducted before and after the referendum, we estimate multinomial logit models to assess the effects of socio‐tropic (national) and ego‐tropic (personal) economic perceptions—current and prospective—on vote choice, controlling for ideology and presidential approval. Results Results: Positive socio‐tropic and prospective ego‐tropic evaluations increased the likelihood of supporting the new constitution, while positive current ego‐tropic assessments were associated with rejection. These effects were strongest among centrist and center‐right voters, indicating that moderates without strong ideological ties to the government were particularly responsive to economic considerations. Conclusion Economic perceptions independently shaped vote choice, supporting the view of constitutional referendums as second‐order elections where voters “take their wallets” to the polls, not just their views on constitutional content.

Date: 2025
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