The Spatial and Demographic Determinants of Racial Threat

Joshua N. Zingher and M. Steen Thomas

Social Science Quarterly, 2014, vol. 95, issue 4, 1137-1154

Abstract: type="main">

Although scholars have cast doubt on Key's ( ) racial threat hypothesis, race continues to play a central role in American politics. But does living in a racially diverse context lead to liberalization or a white backlash? We aim to test the validity of the racial threat hypothesis in the modern-day Deep South.

The data used for this analysis span multiple federal elections from the state of Louisiana, from 2000, 2004, and 2008, in addition to census data from 2000 and 2010. We utilize ArcGIS mapping software to construct a detailed depiction of voters’ racial environments.

We find that whites who live in racially diverse precincts exhibit lower rates of turnout than whites in homogenous precincts; however, segregation within the precinct mitigates the liberalizing effects of precinct-level diversity among whites.

The results of our analysis provide help to clarify the previously mixed empirical findings regarding the geographic distribution of minorities and white racial conservatism.

Date: 2014
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