The Economic Crisis (2009–2013) and Electoral Support for the Radical Right in Western Europe—Some New and Unexpected Findings

Daniel Stockemer

Social Science Quarterly, 2017, vol. 98, issue 5, 1536-1553

Abstract: Objectives This article evaluates the influence of the economic crisis (2009–2013) on the vote share of the radical right in Western European regions. I ask two questions: (1) Has the radical right electorally benefited from the recession that has hit Western Europe in the aftermath of the U.S. and European stock market crisis in 2008/2009? (2) Has it performed particularly well in areas that have been very hard hit by the crisis? Methods I evaluate both questions in a longitudinal and multivariate framework through pooled time series analysis. The analysis, which controls for immigration, the education level of the region, and population density, covers more than 150 regions in 17 European countries from 1990 to 2013. Results First, I find that the 2009 to 2013 economic crisis has merely triggered a very moderate increase of 1 percentage point in the aggregate average regional vote share of the radical right. Second, and with the exception of regions in Greece and France, my results also indicate that the radical right has had the strongest electoral gains in regions and countries that have been relatively spared from the gust of the crisis. Conclusion This quantitative study highlights that an economic crisis is no panacea for the success of the radical right.

Date: 2017
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