Demographic Changes in Japan and their Macroeconomic Effects

Takashi Kozu, Yoshiko Sato and Masakazu Inada
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Takashi Kozu: Bank of Japan
Yoshiko Sato: Bank of Japan
Masakazu Inada: Bank of Japan

No 04-E-6, Bank of Japan Working Paper Series from Bank of Japan

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of demographic changes in Japan upon the social security system, labor market, household savings rate, and economic growth. The results are, firstly, to confirm, in the face of these demographic changes, (1) the increasing difficulty of maintaining the current social security system, (2) the decrease in the number of workers, and (3) the gradual decline of the household savings rate. Secondly, calculations based on a simple model show a reduction in the labor input and a slowdown in the accumulation of capital, indicating that the potential macroeconomic growth rate will also undergo a decline. Furthermore, in order to compensate for the decrease in the number of workers that accompanies such demographic changes, we include in the model some extreme conditions on rates of employment for the elderly and for women as well as on immigration and fertility rates. Even under such extreme conditions, it still proves difficult to completely neutralize the negative demographic effects on the potential growth rate.

Keywords: Demographic Changes; Social Security; Saving Rate; Labor Market; Growth Rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E21 H55 J10 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-09
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boj:bojwps:04-e-6

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