Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition

Paula E. Gobbi (), Anne Hannusch () and Pauline Rossi ()

CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series from University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany

Abstract: Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses.

Keywords: fertility; demographic transition; marriage; polygamy; inheritance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J10 J11 J12 J13 N30 O10 O20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37
Date: 2026-01
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