Generalizing the Elo rating system for multiplayer games and races: why endurance is better than speed

Powell Ben ()
Additional contact information
Powell Ben: Department of Mathematics, University of York, York, UK

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2023, vol. 19, issue 3, 223-243

Abstract: We introduce a non-standard generalization of the Elo rating system for competitions involving two or more participants. The new system can be understood as an online estimation algorithm for the parameters of a Plackett–Luce model which can be used to make probabilistic forecasts for the results of future competitions. The system’s distinguishing feature is the way it treats competitions as sequences of elimination-type rounds that sequentially identify the worst competitors rather than sequences of selection-type rounds that identify the best. The significance of this important modelling choice is discussed and its consequences are explored. Finally, our generalized Elo system’s predictive power is demonstrated using data from Formula One racing.

Keywords: Elo ratings; probabilistic forecasting; rank data; statistical modelling; time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2023-0004 (text/html)
For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:19:y:2023:i:3:p:223-243:n:6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.degruyter.com/journal/key/jqas/html

DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2023-0004

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports is currently edited by Mark Glickman

More articles in Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().