Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves for Measuring the Quality of Decisions in Cricket

Manage Ananda B. W., Mallawaarachchi Kumudu and Wijekularathna Kanchana
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Manage Ananda B. W.: Sam Houston State University
Mallawaarachchi Kumudu: Texas Tech University
Wijekularathna Kanchana: Sam Houston State University

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2010, vol. 6, issue 2, 15

Abstract: A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve visually demonstrates the tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity as a function of varying a classification threshold. It is a common practice to use ROC curves to measure the accuracy of predictions by different methods. Although this method has been used primarily in medical and engineering fields, it could be used effectively in sports as well. More precisely, an ROC plots the sensitivity versus (1 - specificity), and the area under the curve gives a measure of the prediction. So, the ideal best prediction should have one square unit of area under the ROC curve, where it achieves both 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity (which, in reality, rarely happens). Consequently, when we compare two methods, the one with the greater area under its ROC is judged best. This paper shows the effectiveness of using the ROC curves in analyzing cricket data. In particular, the quality of the decisions made by umpires is investigated. Also, the comparison of the accuracy of the methods for revising the target for matches shortening due to weather interruptions is the key interest in our investigation.

Keywords: cricket; ROC curves; prediction; umpire; sports statistics; bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1246

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