The Alliance Dilemma and the Onset of War. A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Rosa Paolo () and Benati Stefano ()
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Rosa Paolo: School of International Studies, 19034 University of Trento , Trento, Italy
Benati Stefano: School of International Studies, 19034 University of Trento , Trento, Italy

Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, 2025, vol. 31, issue 4, 409-437

Abstract: This article seeks to explain the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia in February 2022. The cause of the conflict appears to be very simple: Vladimir Putin wanted to go to war with Kyiv. However, as the bargaining model of war states: a conflict takes at least two actors, both of whom are determined to stop negotiating and resort to arms. We argue here that the negative spiral which led to the outbreak of war can be explained as the outcome of three interrelated strategic games that produced a failure in the US/NATO deterrence posture towards Moscow, an unclear (emboldening?) message sent by the US/NATO to Ukraine, and a misunderstanding of Russia’s war aims (limited vs. unlimited) in Ukraine. A formal model is proposed that explains the outcome of the crisis as the equilibria produced by the interaction of the three actors’ decisions.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war; alliance dilemma; bargaining model; sanction game; three-player game (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F51 F52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1515/peps-2025-0039

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