THE POWER OF WAGERING ON POWER CONFERENCES

Kevin Krieger, Clay Girdner, Andy Fodor and David Kirch

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2013, vol. 7, issue 1, 13-26

Abstract: We study the perceived discrepancy between power conference and mid-major college football teams by examining outcomes of games when these teams face one another. We find that point spreads are set statistically irrationally in games where power conference teams play mid-major teams. We examine all regular season games from the 2002-2011 seasons and find power conference teams cover the spread in a majority of games when facing a mid-major team to an extent that results in profitability over a ten-year period. We find that consistently betting power conference teams will cover point spreads when facing mid-major teams’ results in a return of roughly 2.94% over these seasons. Taking into account Associated Press rankings, the size of point spreads, and the week of the season when games are played, results in even greater profits.

Keywords: Sports Wagering; Efficient Markets; College Football; Point Spreads; NCAA; Bookmakers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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