EMERGENT CAPITAL MARKETS’ EFFICIENCY: THE CASE OF POLAND

Massoud Metghalchi, Adriano Pinho and Adriana Sarmento

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2014, vol. 8, issue 1, 27-41

Abstract: We apply two well-known technical indicators to the Polish Stock index over the period of 9/4/1998 to 4/18/2013. Our findings support the predictive power of technical trading rules for each sub-period and for the entire period. We then ask whether an investor can use the predictive power of technical analysis to beat the profitability of the buy-and-hold strategy considering both transaction costs and risk. We conclude that it is not possible to beat the buy and hold strategy when considering transaction costs and risk. We could say the Polish market is efficient.

Keywords: Efficient Market Hypothesis; Technical Trading; Risk; Poland; Buy and Hold (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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