Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets

Justin Davis, Andy Fodor, Luke McElfresh and Kevin Kreiger

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2015, vol. 9, issue 1, 53-67

Abstract: Past research has provided evidence of hindsight bias in the NFL wagering market. Too much emphasis is placed on a team’s performance in the previous season when placing bets on NFL games during the first week (Week 1) of the season. Building on this contribution, our study extends the examination of hindsight bias in NFL gaming markets by focusing on how bettors consider the information provided by Week 1 performance when betting in Week 2. Our findings suggest multiple market inefficiencies in the NFL gambling market in Week 2, providing the opportunity for profitable betting strategies.

Keywords: Sports Wagering; Efficient Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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