Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme

Nicolas Jacquemet (), Jean-Louis Rullière () and Isabelle Vialle

Revue économique, 2007, vol. 58, issue 3, 555-564

Abstract: Although expensive, monitoring is the most efficient mean to repress a criminal activity. This is typically included in economic models of crime thanks to a probability of detection, and only based on risk aversion. According to recent results in psychology literature, the perception of this probability can however be specific to each individual. This paper experimentally investigates the existence of such errors in probabilities forecasts, often labelled ?optimism bias?. The experiment relies on choices between a no risky (legal) activity and an illegal activity ? randomly penalized by a fine. The experimental treatments assess whether the way the monitoring policy is announced can affect the optimism bias. The results provide a guide into costless devices to undermine illegal activities, grounded on an idiosyncratic perception of risk. Classification JEL : C91, C92, D82, H21, H26

JEL-codes: C91 C92 D82 H21 H26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme (2007)
Working Paper: Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme (2007)
Working Paper: Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme (2007)
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