Incorporating Longevity Effects into Long-Term Medicare Projections: Technical Paper 2004-02

John Sabelhaus, Michael Simpson and Julie Topoleski

No 15190, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: The cost of the Medicare program will increase dramatically as the baby boom generation reaches retirement. Results from the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Model (CBOLT) indicate that Medicare costs will equal more than 9 percent of GDP by 2078. This paper considers the impact of replacing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services approach of using an age- and sex-based model with one that is also based on age and sex but adds time until death to the forecasting model. Other researchers have found that using only age and sex can significantly overstate future

Date: 2004-01-02
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