Testing Alternative Methods for Forecasting Capital Gains: Working Paper 2005-03

Larry Ozanne

No 16308, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts capital gains as part of its start-of-the-year budget outlook. Jan Kim and Preston Miller in a recent paper with Larry Ozanne (KMO) developed two models that forecast gains for the year ahead more accurately than CBO’s existing method. The models were developed with data as revised through 2002, and gains were forecast recursively for the years 1971-2000 (tax changes and their effects were not forecast). This paper tests one of their models further by using data actually available to CBO at the time of its annual forecasts and

Date: 2005-03-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbo:wpaper:16308

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