The Effects of Climate Change on GDP in the 21st Century: Working Paper 2025-02

Chad Shirley and William Swanson

No 61186, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: This working paper provides an estimate of a probability distribution of changes in gross domestic product (GDP) in the year 2100 resulting from changes in temperature. To estimate that distribution, we perform a meta-analysis of the literature on the effects of climate change on GDP and combine those effects with forecast global temperature distributions for the year 2100. We fit Gaussian distributions to the underlying data and numerically estimate the joint distribution of GDP and temperature. Using that distribution, we project that, on average, future temperature

JEL-codes: O44 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02-27
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbo:wpaper:61186

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