Better stealing than dealing: how do felony theft thresholds impact crime?

Stephen B. Billings, Michael D. Makowsky, Kevin Schnepel and Adam Soliman

CEP Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Performance, LSE

Abstract: From 2005 to 2019, forty US states raised the dollar value threshold delineating misdemeanor and felony theft, reducing the expected punishment for a subset of property crimes. Using an event study framework, we observe significant and growing increases in theft after a state reform is passed. We then show that reduced sanctions for theft have broader effects in the market for illegal activity. Consistent with a mechanism of substitution across income-generating crimes, we find decreases in both drug distribution crimes and the probability that a released offender previously convicted of drug distribution is reincarcerated for a new drug conviction.

Keywords: crime; theft; felony; punishment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10-24
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2130

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