A wartime labor market: the case of Ukraine

Giacomo Anastasia, Tito Boeri and Oleksandr Zholud

CEP Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Performance, LSE

Abstract: Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use these data to document one of the largest labor supply and reallocation shocks in recent history and to estimate the impact on job matching, showing how labor markets adapt under extreme stress. The labor force shrank by about one fourth, yet vacancy filling rates and matching efficiency declined modestly. Only along the frontline and in occupied regions there is evidence of labor market shutdowns. Wage flexibility, adaptability of recruitment policies of firms, and remote working help explain the resiliency of labor outcomes. Recovering longer-term human capital losses suffered by Ukraine will require a mix of tools going well beyond labor policies and should be a priority for the reconstruction phase.

Keywords: labor supply shock; reallocation; vacancy filling rate; wartime economy; wartime labor market; Russian invasion; Ukraine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-16
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