Choosing between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study

Sandro Ambuehl and Heidi Thysen
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Sandro Ambühl

No 11103, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Good decision-making requires understanding the causal impact of our actions. Often, we only have access to correlational data that could stem from multiple causal mechanisms with divergent implications for choice. Our experiments comprehensively characterize choice when subjects face conflicting causal interpretations of such data. Behavior primarily reflects three types: following interpretations that make attractive promises, choosing cautiously, and assessing the fit of interpretations to the data. We characterize properties of interpretations that obscure bad fit to subjects. Preferences for more complex models are more common than those reflecting Occam’s razor. Implications extend to the Causal Narratives and Model Persuasion literatures.

JEL-codes: C91 D01 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-dcm and nep-exp
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11103.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Choosing Between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study (2024)
Working Paper: Choosing between causal interpretations: an experimental study (2024)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11103

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().