The US-China Trade War Creates Jobs (Elsewhere)

Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Molina Ogeda and Emanuel Ornelas

No 11839, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We examine the indirect effects of the US-China trade war on Brazil’s labor market. Using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets, we construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict. Following higher exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US exports experienced a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills. In contrast, American tariffs on Chinese exports had no significant impact on Brazilian labor markets. These results contribute to a better understanding of the intricate worldwide implications of bilateral trade wars.

Keywords: trade war; trade diversion; local labor markets; Brazil. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D31 F14 F16 F66 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lma
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