The Legacy of Growing Up in a Recession on Attitudes Towards European Union

Despina Gavresi and Anastasia Litina

No 12082, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: In an era marked by repeated crises and the growing traction of populist movements, understanding the deep-rooted factors shaping EU cohesion has become increasingly urgent. This paper investigates how lifetime exposure to economic recessions influences individual attitudes toward the European Union (EU). Resorting to rich micro-data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and the Eurobarometer, we construct a detailed measure of economic hardship experienced during lifetime, capturing not just isolated downturns but the accumulated burden of multiple recessions over time. Importantly, we distinguish between various types of shocks-including output contractions, unemployment surges, consumption drops, participation in IMF adjustment programs, and the asymmetry or symmetry of crises across EU member states. We show that individuals with greater lifetime exposure to these economic shocks are more likely to distrust EU institutions, oppose further integration, vote for Eurosceptic parties, and support exiting the EU. These patterns are especially pronounced for asymmetric shocks, which disproportionately affect specific regions or countries, in contrast to symmetric shocks, which appear to foster a sense of shared fate and solidarity. A series of robustness tests-including placebo checks, heterogeneity analyses, diverse shock types and designs exploiting EU institutional structure -confirms the persistent impact of economic trauma on EU attitudes, underscoring the need to address historical recessions to safeguard cohesion and democratic legitimacy in the context of the EU.

Keywords: recessions; european integration; EU cohesion; trust; EU institutions; euroscepticism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12082

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