On the Asymmetry Between Conflict and Development: Evidence from Sustainable Development Goals

Rabah Arezki and Hieu Nguyen

No 12458, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between (internal) armed conflict and sustainable development. Using annual panel data on 192 countries from 2000 to 2024, we employ a variety of econometric techniques to trace the impulse responses between conflict fatalities and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) performance in both directions. Results reveal a striking asymmetry: conflict shocks produce long-lasting adverse effects on SDG performance, while SDG performance shocks exert only transient effects on conflict intensity. This asymmetry persists across external and major conflict episodes, and is robust to alternative identification strategies. Our findings indicate that sustainable development is fundamentally contingent on prior achievement of peace.

Keywords: conflict; development; sustainability; persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 D74 O10 O43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12458

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