Electrifying Mobility Reshapes Cities, Energy Demand, and Emissions in Emerging Economies

Julius Berger, Felix Creutzig and Waldemar Marz ()

No 12531, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: EV adoption in emerging economies (lower-middle income, fast urbanization and income growth) mitigates emissions of greenhouse gases and local pollutants from gasoline consumption, but at the same time exacerbates urban sprawl. This implies longer driving distances for commuting and non-work trips and higher consumption of floor space per capita and related energy demand for cooling/heating. We model scenarios of full electrification of transport in China, India, Brazil, and Nigeria until 2060, accounting for income growth, population growth, urbanization, public-transport shares, and power-mix scenarios for each country. On average in 2040, 209 percent of the direct carbon emission savings from EV adoption are offset by additional sprawl through increasing VKT (22 percent) and growing energy demand in the building sector (187 percent). Additional urban sprawl from EV adoption leads to the development of 1.2 million square kilometers until 2060. This is equivalent to 32 percent of arable land in 2024.

Keywords: EV adoption; urban sprawl; emerging economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O18 Q48 Q54 R14 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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