“Us vs Them”: Salient Conflict and Belief Polarization

Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Guido Tabellini

No 12547, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: In an online experiment with a representative US sample (N=12,960) we show that increasing the salience of an economic or cultural conflict without providing any news boosts disagreement on a range of political issues by 8-35%. The data support two key predictions of the Bonomi et al. (2021) identity theory of political beliefs. First, polarization amplifies – through stereotypes – latent disagreement among the economic or cultural groups standing in salient conflict. Second, there is belief realignment away from no-longer salient groups, causing some people to move across the conservative-progressive divide. These results can illuminate real-world political conflicts and propaganda.

Keywords: social identity; stereotypes; belief realignment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D83 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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