Organized Crime, Hidden Pollution, and Long-run Health Costs

Davide Cipullo, Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato and Gianmario Pelleschi

No 12644, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We study the long-run health effects of illegal toxic waste disposal conducted by organized crime in Italy. We exploit quasi-random variation in historical wind direction around contaminated sites combined with a difference-in-differences design. Using administrative data on cancer deaths spanning four decades, we find that wind exposure to pollutants increases the number of cancer deaths substantially. The effects emerge after long latencies and grow over time. In later years, wind exposure implies roughly two additional cancer deaths per municipality-year relative to unexposed municipalities equally proximate to contaminated sites. Our findings reveal a previously unmeasured health externality of organized crime.

Keywords: organized crime; environmental externalities; pollution and health; state capacity; cancer mortality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D62 I18 K42 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12644

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