Estimating the Demand for a Digital Euro: A Survey Approach for France, Germany and Italy

Bernd Hayo, Matthias Neuenkirch and Manuel Walz

No 12706, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper analyses the extensive and intensive margins of demand for a retail digital euro. We conducted a representative survey in France, Germany and Italy in November–December 2023. We find that 52–62% of respondents are willing to hold a digital euro, depending on the interest rate spread, with a higher share in Italy than in France or Germany. Design features (cash-like vs deposit-like) appear to play only a very limited role. Average demand depends on the hypothetical interest rate spread relative to current accounts and ranges from EUR 700 to EUR 1,100, implying an aggregate demand of 1.5–2.5% of GDP. Willingness to hold a digital euro is associated with socio-demographic factors, trust in the ECB and the EU, digitalisation and payment behaviour. Negative interest rate spreads relative to current accounts reduce willingness to hold the digital euro more strongly than positive spreads increase it. Behavioural characteristics tend to be correlated with the likelihood of adoption, whereas economic factors, particularly income and interest rates, are mainly related to the level of demand. This distinction becomes more pronounced when conditioning on positive demand, suggesting that socio-demographic factors primarily influence participation decisions rather than quantities demanded.

Keywords: CBDC demand; digital euro; ECB; household survey; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E41 E42 E51 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12706

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