Persistence in Remittances: Evidence from Africa and Latin America

Luis Rodrigo Asturias, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana and Carlos Ramirez

No 12840, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper uses fractional integration methods to estimate the degree of persistence of annual real remittances per capita to 21 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) and 12 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries using data from World Bank World Development Indicators covering the period from 1980 to 2024. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity across both regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, 5 (Kenya, Senegal, Benin, South Africa and Cameroon) of 21 countries show statistically significant mean reversion, whilst three others (Somalia, Côte d’Ivoire and Tunisia) display explosive persistence. In Latin America and the Caribbean, only the Dominican Republic and Panama display mean reversion. These findings shed light on whether shocks have transitory or permanent effects and therefore have crucial implications for the design of appropriate stabilization and development policies.

Keywords: remittances; Africa; Latin America; persistence; fractional integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 F10 F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12840

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