Longevity Beliefs and Retirement Planning: Evidence from an Information Experiment and Expert Forecasts

Claudia Curi, Andreas Dibiasi, Francesco Nicolini, Matteo Ploner and Mirco Tonin

No 12907, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Using original survey data from working-age individuals in Northern Italy, we study longevity beliefs and other key knowledge components relevant for retirement decisions. We find substantial dispersion in population longevity beliefs, with 40% of individuals misestimating life expectancy by more than five years, and highly fragmented knowledge across domains. Providing actuarial life expectancy information – tailored by age, gender, and county of residence – does not affect beliefs about individuals’ own longevity or retirement plans, reflecting a disconnect between beliefs about one’s own longevity and that of others. We compare our results with forecasts provided by 262 academic experts. On average, experts accurately anticipate the levels and correlations of longevity literacy with other knowledge components, but they mispredict a strong updating response of own longevity expectations to the provision of population information that deviates markedly from what we observe in the data.

Keywords: subjective longevity; expert forecasts; financial literacy; retirement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D15 D83 G50 J26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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