Global Hydropower Exposure to Rainfall Variability: Historical Estimates and the 2026/27 El Niño

Stephane Hallegatte

No 13068, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Hydropower is the generation technology most exposed to interannual climate variability. This paper estimates empirically that exposure at the country level and applies it to the 2026/27 El Niño season, using seasonal forecasts for precipitations. Output is measured as the capacity factor — generation divided by the installed fleet — using a plant-level capacity panel. On 4,853 country-year observations across 117 countries over 1981–2024, a 10 percentage-point shortfall in annual precipitation reduces the hydropower capacity factor by 4.57% in the year it occurs and by a further 3.22% in the year after, with the total impact of a shortfall sustained over two years reaching 7.65% (p

Keywords: hydropower; rainfall variability; precipitations; El Niño (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 Q25 Q42 Q47 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13068

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