Learning from Stories, Statistics, and Narratives

Thomas W. Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann

No 13082, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This article reviews how different types of information shape belief formation. We organize the discussion around two distinctions: whether information supplies evidence or a framework for interpreting evidence, and whether it is qualitative or quantitative. Stories describe individual instances in qualitative terms, whereas statistics summarize many observations numerically. Narratives and quantitative models provide qualitative and quantitative frameworks, respectively, for interpreting evidence. We examine how learning from evidence and learning from models interact: models shape responses to existing and subsequent evidence, while evidence can prompt model revision. We argue that qualitative information engages associative cognitive processes, such as mental simulation and memory retrieval, which tend to give it a larger and more lasting influence on beliefs than quantitative information. We then discuss implications for strategic communication and the supply of information in media markets, and identify challenges and open questions for future research.

Keywords: stories; statistics; narratives; beliefs; learning; qualitative information; models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C90 D83 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13082

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