The Great Recession and the Geography of U.S. Fertility

Wookun Kim, Seonghoon Kim and Kanghyock Koh

No 13102, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) fell during the Great Recession and did not rebound. Using restricted-use natality records for 741 commuting zones (CZs), we find that a one-percentage-point larger CZ-level unemployment shock reduced the TFR by 0.015 (0.7 percent) children per woman during the recession and by 0.022 (1.1 percent) during 2010-2019 relative to 2006. First birth rates partially recovered, while second- and higher-order birth rates account for about two-thirds of the post-recession decline. The missing births fell disproportionately on intended births. Non-Hispanic White fertility rebounded; the lasting gap is concentrated in births to Hispanic and foreign-born mothers.

Keywords: fertility; Great Recession; local labor markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 J11 J13 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13102

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