Trade Liberalization in Eastern European Countries and the Prospects of their Integration into the World Trading System

Jaleel Ahmad and Jing Yang

No 164, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The paper explores the short and the long run prospects of in-tegrating the transitional economies of Eastern Europe into the world trading system. This is attempted in a quantitative framework that considers three broad, non-competing alternative scenarios that are feasible. The quantitative exercise is based on the estimation of time trends from a consistent data set for the years 1973 through 1993. The Box-Jenkins estimation and forecasting for the 10-year period, 1990-2000, confirms these trends. By a wide margin, Eastern Europe's trade with the European Union (EU) appears to be the most promising channel for bringing these countries into the mainstream of world trade.

Date: 1998
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