Evidence Under Scrutiny: How Reliable Is the Research Backing Public Policy?

Abel Brodeur, Nikolai Cook, Derek Mikola, Maddalena Totarelli and Et. Al.

No 85, EconPol Policy Brief from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: Key Messages85 percent of published economics and political science findings can be independently verifiedOne in four significant results disappear under different reasonable choices, and one in four studies contain undetected coding errorsPublished results cluster just above significance thresholds, which is evidence of publication biasPolicymakers should rely on independently reproduced evidence and avoid scaling up programs based on a single studyJournals and research entities should expand open data and robustness disclosure mandates

Date: 2026
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