The Role of Maritime Chokepoints for German International Trade

Philip Bodenschatz, Katharina Erhardt, Lisandra Flach and Lukas Eberth

No 56, EconPol Policy Reports from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: Maritime transportation is central to Germany’s international trade, with about half of extra-EU imports and exports relying on sea transport. Much of this trade is routed indirectly through a small number of global hubs, leaving Germany highly exposed to disruptions at key maritime chokepoints. Using data on shipping routes, this report quantifies Germany’s dependence on six major chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Taiwan, the Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal. Results show that in 2023, nearly 10 percent of German imports passed through the Suez Canal, with similarly high reliance on the Bab al-Mandab, Malacca, and Taiwan straits, while dependence on the Strait of Hormuz was below 1 percent. Dependence varies substantially across products, sectors, and trading partners: some products rely almost exclusively on a single chokepoint, while others are diversified; trade with certain countries can be affected by up to five chokepoints simultaneously. The analysis underscores Germany’s vulnerability to disruptions in global maritime trade and the importance of accounting for product-, partner-, and sector-specific dependencies.

Date: 2025
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