What Option Prices tell us about the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies

Sweder van Wijnbergen, Stan Olijslagers, Annelie Petersen and Nander de Vette

No 13371, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We use a series of different approaches to extract information about crash risk from option prices for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate, with each step sharpening the focus on extracting more specific measures of crash risk around dates of ECB measures of Unconventional Monetary Policy. Several messages emerge from the analysis. Announcing policies in general terms without precisely describing what exactly they entail does not move asset markets or actually increases crash risk. Also, policies directly focused on changing relative asset supplies do seem to have an impact, while measures aiming at easing financing costs of commercial banks do not.

Keywords: Quantitative easing; Unconventional monetary policies; Exchange rate crash risk; Risk reversals; Mixed diffusion jump risk models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E52 E58 E65 G12 G13 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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