Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: Baby Boom and Busts in Twentieth Century USA

Chabé-Ferret, Bastien and Paula Gobbi
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Bastien Chabé-Ferret ()

No 13374, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Using variation across US counties and states in the volatility of income growth over the course of the twentieth century, we identify a negative effect of economic uncertainty on fertility. Our findings contribute to the unraveling of the determinants of the post-WWII baby boom: the decline in economic uncertainty endured by women born in 1910 compared to that of those born in 1933 can account for an increase in fertility by 0.4 to 0.6 child, which is about 45% to 67.5% of the change across these cohorts.

Keywords: Baby boom; Baby bust; Fertility; Economic uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 J11 J13 N30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-gro, nep-his, nep-lab and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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